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[ ♪ theme ♪ ] [ ♪ theme ♪ ] >> john: good morning. this is the "bill press show." i'm john fuglesang filling in for bill with you until 9:00 a.m. eastern time. it is a pleasure to be here in bill's seat. he will be back tomorrow. for today, there's so much to talk about from last night's debate between scott walker and elizabeth -- scott brown and elizabeth warren. it is a little early. and the winner has already pronounced to be david gregory. mitt romney's trash collector is talking. paul ryan has a hard time doing his math homework and best of all, a man with a doubly phallic name has endorsed governor romney. first, here's lisa. >> good morning everyone. it's not about whether you win or lose. it's how you play the game unless you're running for president then it is about winning but not according to mitt romney. in his version of reality where the polls are made up and the results don't matter he says the debates are about something bigger than winning. they're a chance for each candidate to p
to october, everyone. this is "early start." i'm john berman in washington this morning. >> and i'm sir riesirita simon. >>> president barack obama and mitt romney square off wednesday night in denver. both trying to lower expectations practically gushing over one another, but new jersey governor chris christie is going against the grain and setting the bar high for the republican nominee. >>er time mitt romney has been confronted in this campaign with one of these moments, he has come through in a debate and performed extraordinarily well laying out his vision very clearly and also contrasting himself with his vision with hoomp his opponent was at that time. so i have absolute confidence when we get to thursday morning, george, you'll be shaking your head saying it's a brand new race with 33 dap days to go. >> you almost never hear that. doing well in a debate. what on earth was chris christie doing? live from washington in an undisclosed location at the bureau, peter what was chris christie doing there? >> i have no idea, john. do you? this flies in the face of everything the romney c
our nation's capital. i'm john fugelsang filling in today and i'm delighted to be here with you. this is october 1 the birthday of mark mcguire and 88th 88th birthday of former president jimmy carter. it's cold in our nation's capitol but we are very pleads to be talking with you about the issues that matter most. please feel free to call us. >> good morning everyone. both candidates are gearing up for the first presidential debate. president obama will stay in nevada for the next few days to wrap up final preparations. he campaigned in las vegas last night to a group of 11,000 supporters and in an effort to manage his expectations said he's just an okay debater. >> i know folks in the media are speculating already on who's going to have the best zingers. >> you will. >> i don't know about that. president romney is a good debater. >> that is in response to reports that romney is prepping and plans on taking jabs at the president. obama spokeswoman is saying don't expect the president to fire any blows and he looks forward to continuing his conversation with the american people.
were starting to notice senior advisers all the way down. i remember talking to john dell staccato. he is the d so he was a consultant and he was saying what inspired him about this footage was needless stuff we have been shooting but senator obama had reported a birthday message to a staffer just because they weren't able to be on the trail and he wanted to make sure that she would have a happy birthday. i don't know if she did i don't know but after seeing it, this was so cool and authentic a wonderfully get to videos like this incorporating the backstage element into more visual media so the hybrid of this plus the standard commercial ended up being like the austin caucus spot i believe is what it was written as. and we did tons of these because we like liked this so much. >> are we ready now? >> the next president of the united states, barack obama. >> we have got a chance to make history in january 3. be a part of it. make showed to show up to caucus. let's go change the world. [applause] nice t-shirt. >> given enough time on camera any person who deals with it, this is a great ex
clear politics poll average shows his poll leading there. ohio governor john kasich is on the show and welcome. the polls show that mitt romney is trailing. how do you explain that and is that true. >> you know, paul i don't pay a lot of attention to polls because it depends on what they take and the sample. these guys have been in ohio and they should start paying income tax. this thing is as close can be they both wouldn't be here. i expect this to go down to the wire. we are always a swing state. it will be very close. >> paul: so the democrats are saying one of big things that is helping the spent the auto bailout. is that how you lead to to help the president? >> look, we're up 123,000 jobs over the last year and three-quarters. we're actually according to the bureau of labor statistics down 500 jobs, auto jobs in ohio. the situation. chrysler has expanded and ford and gm have shrunk their footprint but we stabilizing. auto industry out here. of the 123,000 jobs, most of them, biggest categories are business services and healthcare. we are having specialty manufacturing reboun
to you and your miracle workers john, hal chris and jacki. love you guys. >> and jim? >> stephanie: jim i'm sorry. look at her handwriting it's worst than mine. [ applause ] >> that's how you know she didn't get anyone to write it for her. >> stephanie: she has other thoughts she put in later. >> she edits herself like any good writer does. >> stephanie: like getting a first draft. sign of intelligence life. >> wow. >> stephanie: it was just an amazing night. thank you, seattle. greatest birthday. jilly in seattle and ellie in sausalito met for the first time. they've been chat room and e-mail friends for years. >> back when we had steph's space. >> stephanie: really? okay. >> the final frontier. >> hi, mama. we had such a great time. you were in rare form. my hats off to one of the only women i know with a filthier mouth than mine. my excuse is i'm married to a steelworker. [ applause ] this is only for folks in television land. you have to look at what ellie made me. look at this.
today voting in a swing state, iowa. guess who's there john king. iowa city, iowa. john, are you seeing many early voters where you are? >> reporter: we have seen quite a few of them brooke. we had a camera here in iowa city and des moines earlier today. i wouldn't say it's gangbusters but modest lineseople saying pretty good loins and if you look at the stickers, the t-shirts a lot them are obama voters so you would say score the first day of early voting in iowa for the president and a cautionary note though. there's a strategic difference of the republicans and the democrats. democrats early investing in early voting and i talked to steve grubs saying the democrats won the early voting in 2010 and did quite well in the statewide races and legislative races and there's a difference of how important early voting is and votes in 2010 cast early. 35 states and the district of columbia allow some form of i critical part. young voters a state where in 2008. their enthusiasm down a little bit so if campaign on the campus identifies them early they ifhey forget what day
much better. >> one of your colleagues, speaker john boehner had something to say about the race in ohio. i want to get your reaction to it. >> one of the things that probably works against romney in ohio is the fact that governor kasich has done such a good job of fixing businesses in the state and attracting businesses in the state. our unemployment rate in ohio is lower than the national average. i think it's four points lower than the national average. as a result, people are still concerned about the competent and jobs in ohio but certainly isn't like you've seen in other states. >> patti ann: no question, is the paradox here that john kasich the republican governor is helping president obama win reelection? >> you know, paul i think i don't accept that. fact of the matter it's hard to defeat an incumbent president. two, ohio has always been a swing state and number three, in order for mitt romney to do better he has to be here more. the situation is we are doing better here. we went from 89 cents rainy day fund to loss of 400,000 jobs to up 123, so people are feeling better
national correspondent john king is in denver getting ready for the debate over there. that's the site of the debate. john, take us into these numbers. what are you seeing? >> reporter: well, wolf, i can tell you this, talking to senior officials in the romney campaign, they believe after a tough week or ten days, the last several days, they have a little bit of a breeze at their back. they say the race has stabilized. you dig into the numbers. what is the most important issue in this first debate? the economy. look at this poll. which candidate would better handle the economy? the president, 49%, governor romney, 48%. a dead heat. the president has to defend his record. governor romney not only needs to attack his record but to convince voters he has a better place to take them if he wins the election. and you know this full well, the reason this debate and what both candidates say in the economy is so important is the friday morning after the wednesday night debate, we'll get the latest unemployment report. if governor romney could turn in a strong debate performance and another tepi
york city wh willie geist, our national affairs editor for "new york" magazine andnbit analyst, john heilemann. also former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve ratner and nbc news chief affairs correspondent and ht of "andrea mitchell reports." >> we have affairs. >> andrea mitchell. aninasto f "the politico playbook," executive executor jim vandehei. of course, willie, we've got a lot to talk about. let's start really quickly with the refs! >> they're back. >> we've got some breaking news. y,'s veryxc bseu, little she's 9 years old. she plays in the soccer league. and the parents have had to ref over the past couple weeks because those guys have gone off to the nfl, but it's taken care of now. >> that's great news. >> drilled down deep. a few hours ago,hel a referees union announced they have reached a tentative agreement that will end the lockout and bring the original -- the regular officiating crews back to the field. and it starts tonight. quick turnaround. the ravens host the browns in a thursday night game. the deal good through the 20 er salary for offi
obama and mitt romney meanwhile battling it out in the swing state of ohio. john harwood joins us now with all the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. you know, in the wake of that 47% video last week, mitt romney's got a new message and that's to tell middle class people as well as the poor that he cares about them. he did it on the stump in ohio today, he also did it in an interview with our nbc colleague ron allen just a few minutes ago. here's mitt romney. >> i served as a pastor of a congregation with people of all different backgrounds and economic circumstances that i care very deeply about the american people and people of different socioeconomic circumstances. and i think throughout this campaign, as well, we've talked about my record in massachusetts. don't forget, i've got everybody in my state insured. >> and here's some numbers, larry, that show you why that is mitt romney's message rather than tax cuts. you can't compare in the state of ohio where a new york times cbs poll shows mitt romney down by ten percentage points, president obama ahead on the econ
in the field, that romney has a good ground game in ohio. knocking on 28 times as many doors as john mccain did. that's a pretty stunning ratio. why isn't he doing better? >> the mccain campaign wasn't renowned for its ground game. romney has about half as many offices in ohio as the obama campaign, which has been embedded in the state, yet according to "the washington post poll, the romney campaign is doing a good job keeping up. these volunteers and field staffers for the campaign don't really know what product they're selling because mitt romney hasn't really articulated. a compelling message as to why they should throw out barack obama because the economy in ohio is doing better than it is in other parts of the country. >> it is and the question is, who gets the credit ryan joins me now along with roland martin. roland, that was the kind of, you're not afraid to say what you think. a kick in the you know, at least they're saying they feel the way they feel. >> actually, honesty is always the best policy. it's amazing they are making sarah palin out to look like a you know, profit, if you wi
and john kerry fought it out every day about the war. in 2008 we were at war, and barack obama and john mccain fought it out every day in that war. this week when the financial crisis was absolutely on fire, at that debate, they were talking about the wars. this year, president obama does bring it up, he does bring it up at most of his stump speeches, how he explains what he has done and planning on doing talking about the two wars. he doesn't have to say much more because he's speaking to an empty room. the romney campaign has no identifiable position on afghanistan. they have been unwilling and unable to hold up that side of debate and so regardless of what it means for the candidates as a country we are deprived of a national discussion about a war we are in. 70,000 american families having skin in the game right now. we have -- that's part of the reason i'm looking forward to the debates. some ways sort of a post-policy campaign. and you can't do that in a debate, at least unless the debate is really bad. >> this is -- this is billed as a domestic policy debate, but -- and there are so
. >> remember the scream? howard dean led john kerry in early polls, but then after a loss he tried to rally the troops. >> we're going to california, and texas, and new york! >> the room was noisy. and people in the room said, this sounded like a normal rally. >> and then we're going to washington, d.c. to take back the white house! yay! >> but because dean's microphone picked up only dean's voice, the tv broadcast made him sound crazy. >> yay! >> that unfairly may have killed his campaign. even images can matter more than issues. this video is said to have hurt john kerry. this is said to have helped bill clinton. bill clinton. in the 1980 republican primary george bush had moment against ronald reagan, until in the debate in new hampshire, there was a moment where reagan looked strong. >> i am paying for this microphone. >> that moment helped change the campaign. >> some o some of them you can . >> read my lips. no new taxes. >> the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull, lipstick. >> other ones, you got to depend on your candidate seizing a moment you didn't expect to happen. >>
. president obama is leading in the polls but can mitt romney turn it around? we'll ask john kasich. just call him the 10% president. that is what he spiax responsibility for the deficit and libya is still raising more questions for the white house. it could have been stopped? >> paul: welcome to the journal editorial report. i'm paul gigot. you'll eyes were on ohio this week as they both hit the buckeye state hard. hoping to put 18 electoral votes in their col >> paul: politics poll real lot of attention to polls because it depends on what they take and the sample. these guys have been in ohio and they should start paying income tax. this thing is as close can be they both wouldn't be here. i expect this to go down to the wire. we are always a swing state. it will be very close. >> paul: so the democrats are saying one of big things that is helping the spent the auto bailout. is that how you lead to to help the president? >> look, we're up 123,000 jobs over the last year and three-quarters. we're actually according to the bureau of labor statistics down 500 jobs, auto jobs in ohio. the situat
today, emmy darling msnbc political analyst and national affairs editor for "new york" magazine john heilemann, "the huffington post" washington bureau chief ryan grim, author of "the daily show" liz winsted and "rolling stone" executive editor eric baits. welcome to bizarre world. ramping you for the first debate each candidate is showering praise on the opposition in the hopes of lowering the bar for themselves. paul ryan gushed over president obama's skills on the debate stage. >> president obama is a very -- he's a very gifted speaker. the man's been on the national stage for many years. he's an experienced debater. >> shockingly, senior white house adviser david plouffe had the same feelings about governor mitt romney. >> we'd expect it all along that governor romney will have a good night. he's prepared more than any candidate in history and shown himself to be a good debater through the years. >> even the candidates were tamping down expectations yesterday. >> i don't think anyone would suggest the debates aren't important. i can't tell you how important it will be. i don't kn
for the big debates. john kerry, by the way, will be playing the role of mitt romney. he's someone who has a lot of experience debating but also knows mitt romney very well as he comes from massachusetts. now, the big issue, though, is who will both of these candidates be able to sway in the debate? as we know, most americans have made up their minds. we're talking about a small slice of those undecided voters who are watching, waiting to find out exactly who will win. >> okay. let's talk about the republican side with paul steinhauser. word on the street, paul, is that mitt romney has been practicing zingers since august. >> yeah. that's the word on the street. the romney campaign won't go there, carol. all they're going to say is, guess what? he's spending a lot of time getting ready. you're right. i don't have any sound fm mitt romney like dan had from the president. why? he hasn't done an event in a while. mitt romney, carol, he jumps on a plane today, goes out to colorado. he's got a campaign rally there tonight. but after that basically hunkers down. you mentioned john kerry, of cour
, thank you. love ending on that note. now it's joe johns in "the situation room." >>> happening now, a new poll in a vital swing state shows one of the presidential candidates with a clear and growing lead. also, what it's like to debate mitt romney. newt gingrich knows and he'll tell us about that and more. and after a multimillion dollar makeover, what's supposed to be one of washington's most beautiful sites is an ugly eyesore. wolf blitzer's off today. i'm joe johns. you're in "the situation room." >>> we begin with one of the states that in just 41 days could decide the presidential election, ohio, is so important both to president obama and mitt romney campaigning there this afternoon. and there's more of a backdrop than just the early autumn trees. a brand new quinnipiac/cbs "new york times" poll has the president a full ten points ahead of romney in ohio. 53% to 43%. let's begin with cnn white house correspondent dan lothian. >> reporter: joe, even though a new poll shows the president with a double digit lead in ohio, mr. obama continues to push hard in the state. it's a hu
of the second great debate between richard nixon and john f. kennedy. right before that debate the kennedy brothers arrived to discover something weird had happened. the temperature was meat locker level. so cold they couldn't believe it, and they knew why. kennedy's television adviser went racing to the basement and found nixon's guy standing watch on the thermostat. nixon had sweated in that first debate, and it cost him. this time the nixon people were intent on freezing the room so cold that nixon couldn't sweat at all. well, after a standoff in that basement in our headquarters and some threats to call the police, they agreed to bring the temperature up. well, think this stuff doesn't matter? it all matters. just like everything we do, wear, look like, act like, seem like in our first debates -- actually our first dates when we were growing up, remember? today we look at the serious stuff that will matter, where they stand and they disagree. i'm joined by bob shrum and the great david corn, famous for having unearthed that very important 47% speech by romney he never wanted us to hear
'm chris mathews. welcome to the show. with us today, new york magazine's john, trish and kelly and the huffington post's d howard. with just over a month to go for mitt romney, given the polls, the debates may be it. it could change the narrative that has dogged him or cemented. romney has the same urgent must-do list that he at the republican convention. only now could be his last chance. today we're going to look at romney's career, back at his career, at some missteps in past debates and also at some gems from barack obama. first up, first on romney's must-do list, get likable. and avoid this kind of reaction when governor rick perry charged that romney had hired illegal lawn workers. >> i'm speaking. i'm speaking. i'm speaking. i'm speaking. you get 30 seconds. this is the way the rules work here. is that i get 60 seconds. and you get -- >> but the american people want the truth. they want -- >> i understand -- >> you say that you knew you had illegals. >> would you please wait? are you just going to keep talking? are you going to let me finish with what i have to say? >> i
to john kerry a few years ago. but romney's people should have been smart enough to know this was happening. there was no presumption of that. they didn't get out aahead of the story. they didn't define their candidate well. there's two parts to this election, chris. one, is romney said a lot of people are unhappy with obama and his leadership and the economy. we accept that. he never made the connection that i'm the answer and solution. that's where the disconnect happened. >> mitt romney has been doing a lot to -- we saw it starting at the conventions. make himself more acceptable and help people understand him better. he's doing these direct into the camera ads. let me play one of those for you. >> more americans are living in poverty than when president obama took office. my plan will create 12 million new jobs over the next four years. helping lift families out of poverty and strengthening the middle class. >> the president is doing the same thing, doing some of these direct to camera. when you see a million ads in a battleground states, do these stand out? how do yo
years ago, john mccain stood up to a supporter who called then-senator obama an arab. here's his instantaneous, instinctive reaction. take a look. >> i have read about him and he's not -- he's a -- he's an arab. he's not -- >> no, ma'am. >> no? >> no, ma'am, no, ma'am. he's a decent, family man, citizen that i just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. that's what this campaign is all about. >> yeah, that's called honor. it's called honor. we're not seeing a lot of that. we're not seeing any of that. >> i haven't seen that on either side in this campaign. >> john mccain is a genuine guy. disagree with him, agree with him, whatever, it's called honor. the republican party used to believe in that. >> put it more crudely, there's some crap i won't eat. i'm not going to go along with what i see as is an ethnic campaign, that shouldn't be part of this campaign. i'm not going to go along with what you said. that instinctive no, no, is the greatest american spirit. i'm not going to do that. >> imagine mitt romney doing that. >> i would like to see every politician do
back from the dead immediate control of the congress. john boehner is the speaker of the house. john boehner realizes that he has to confront his own people if he is going to save the credit rating them back on moody's and save it from downgrade. this is going to be a political disaster. john boehner can fill in the back of his scalp that this is going to be burning on the republicans. he feels political blame but it's also worried about the country. two hearts -- two heartbeats away from the downgrade. and so, he does something extraordinary. he acts like a leader. he comes up with a compromise. that is a political possibility from where he sits and he finds out a way to close loopholes and raise some $800 billion in new revenue. that should be enough to make a deal with the president of the united states. and he manages to come to a deal. even shake hands. and they can feel history, the wind of history at their back. and then we will reform entitlement. the vice president is deeply involved. at the very moment that they are making this deal and they shake hands, obama suddenly gets
bay, lisa patro, wqow tv o'claire and john quarter, news director waftvreinlander. we'll begin with one-minute opening statements. senator baldwin, your opening statement? >> thank for you this opportunity. over this last year i've traveled this great state meeting with people who are working hard, playing by the rules and trying to get ahead. unfortunately, for so many, it's been harder and harder just to get by. and what's changed hasn't been our work ethic, it's been the rules. you know, today in washington, big powerful entrusts the ones with a whole lot of money and best lobbyists get to write their own rules and there's too many politicians who are eager to help them. people feel that washington isn't listening to the struggles of middle class families, and that's why wisconsin needs a senator who will. i've spent my time in washington being a voice for the struggles of middle class families and standing up to powerful interests like wall street, big oil, and the big health insurance companies. my opponent spent his time in washington helping these same powerful interests
're jealous. it seems the more powerful you are, the less you need what the rest of us breathe. elton john may sing about galaxy travel but despises cell phones and the web. warren buffett is famously bare on technology. angelina jolie jokes about ter tech no phobia. and last year winona rider told jimmy fallin the internet scares her. >> and the man with over 100 movies under his belt doesn't emp mail or carry a phone. >> but the lack of access. >> to me it doesn't matter. i think it's you who is sweating it. >> ok, christopher waukon. but for us working stiffs, we can't escape technology. morning, noon, and night. the power to unplug is a luxury we can't afford. >> well maybe just this once. tuning in and logging out for good morning america. >> i'm jealous. coming up. a house fire leads to a startling discovery involving two children. plus, a teacher charged in a murder for hire plot. but wait until you hear how his target reacted. and this man is not who he appears to be and that's causing people their valuable possessions. we'll explain. right after t
terrorized our region. the police hunted for john allan mohammad and lee boyd malvo. they were linked to 10 shootings -- several shootings, including 10 in the d.c. area. the case is unforgettable for those of us living in the area at the time. the evidence has been locked away for years and eventually, some will be on display at a new downtown museum opening in 2015. beth parker got a look. >> reporter: three weeks of terror. while some would rather forget about the shooting in a maryland suburb, they're working to keep the memory alive. >> this is the fairly well- known tarot card. >> reporter: that was left at the scene of the shooting at benjamin tasker school in prince georges county. >> for you, mr. police, code, call me god. don't release to the press. >> reporter: the handwriting connected lee malvo to multiple scenes. they online from the prince -- on loan from the prince william police department and it will be going to the museum going built -- that is gettingibility. >> for a museum, it's a big piece. >> they wearing gloves preserve the artifacts. we want to show you around the
and the governor of ohio, john kasich. >> there is no doubt that the world is in need of a new order and fresh way of thinking. >> bill: mad man of iran insulting just about everybody at the u.n. we decided to turn the tables tonight and let miller loose on ahmadinejad. >> he is the impeerist do you df fuss. >> barack obama what do you think. >> it's all there in black and white. i hope the white part doesn't screw it up. >> our government is wiping its-[bleep] with the constitution. >> bill: new study out of the university of new hampshire celebrities saying dumb political stuff are hurting their careers. juliet huddy on that. caution, you where to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. >> bill: i'm birl, thanks for watching us tonight. the status of the presidential race right this moment that's the subject of this evening's talking points memo. this is is an important factor tonight because we are going to tell you straight up where the campaign is at this point in history. no spin, no nonsense. no ideology. two new polls today have r. very good news for president obama. the polli
? john heilemann is new york magazine national affairs editor and an msnbc contributor. and i must give you congratulations, john. i was outherwithou, u maalrin e bo thicupour, count them, four emmys this weekend, this sunday night. we all watched. it must be amazing to be part of a show that included that fit hour or so of that show and then it got intellectual when you got up there. i thout it was pretty nglations.. it's all part of television. susan page, thank you. i'm sure you'll get your emmy some day for front page reporting with "usa today." let me ask you about a game-changing situation. i know you don't want to give away your next book. it seems bl cltosp in charlotte not only changed the political sort of feel but people began to feel coming out of that according to some polling i have seen feeling better about the economy objectively. >> yes. >> tell me about that. the way you look at that. >> i think hugely important that speech, chris, i think in a way even conservatives have acknowledged the speech was kind of a game-changing mt in the election. he did twoiffentng e ceh e
. >> i'm joining now by chris kafinas and john braybender. gentlemen, good to see you again. >> good morning. >> okay, john. we keep saying this but i'm going to say it again. no republican has won the presidency without ohio. so what's mitt romney do now? >> well, thing that's right. i think he has to win not only ohio. i think e has to win probably virginia and florida as well. and i tlink's a couple of keys right now to mitt romney. you know, we saw in the primary. they said after the primary you can hit reset like an etch a sketch and change where you're going. think they're a little bit at that point where they've got to get a little sharper message. i think number one, they've got to get to know mitt romney more personally, not just as a ceo, but what kind of person he's like. numb beer two, they even got to put ideas out there that they're running on to get people excited about where they're going in the country, not just be a professional critic of the president. >> one of the questions is whether or not he's playing it too safe. he's sitting back, letting the events lay out
headwinds in ohio where the governor, john casic, touted his state's recovery at a romney event. >> i hope you all know ohio's coming back from 48th in job creation to number four. number one in the midwest. >> reporter: joined by gulf legend and ohio native jack nicholas, romney said the president shouldn't get a mulligan or do-over. >> now there's over $16 trillion in debt. if he were re-elected, i can assure you almost $20 trillion in debt. >> reporter: asked about the first face-to-face encounter with obama, when you go up against cy young, you need batting practice. hard to set expectations for your opponent any higher than that. >> that's cnn's jim acosta with mitt romney in ohio. a closer look at why romney's poll numbers seem to be slipping. let's bring in cnn's political reporter peter hamby. i enjoyed reading your article at cnn.com. >> thank you. >> give us some idea why if you will why the president is running so strong? >> the real problem for mitt romney is in the meat of the polls. he has advantage on economy, taxes, democrats rarely have advantage on, among women. couple th
, president bush was leading democratic challenger john kerry by 11 percentage points just fryer to the first presidential debate. right after the debate, which just about everybody thought that kerry had won, president bush was leading by only two points. and you know, it really didn't change a whole lot until the end of the campaign. president bush won by three points. jenna: very interesting. we see senator kerry on the screen. a lot of things we talk about, larry, is turnout when it comes to this election and how important turnout really is going to be. do debates affect turnout? >> absolutely because the turnout battle is really a battle of enthusiasm in the two party bases and, you know the romney people have been pretty frank. paul ryan was very frank over the weekend in saying the ticket has had a tough couple weeks. when you have a tough couple weeks you're enthusiasm level can decline. a good performance in a presidential debate can gin party enthusiasm. that may happen on wednesday for either side. we'll have to see what transpires in the debate. jenna: we always have to wait to ac
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